January 18, 2013
by Sean Killcar, Edtior
Here we are at the start of another year for the trucking community—a year packed with potential. So what are the early portents for 2013? Rather than muddy the prognostication waters with my own poor predictive abilities, we’ve asked Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at global consulting firm IHS, for his “big picture” perspective.
“The dynamics for a gradually accelerating U.S. recovery are already in place,” he says. “The balance of forces affecting U.S. consumer spending have turned positive. Housing is finally showing signs of life and can be expected to keep improving over the next year. As global growth begins to reaccelerate (albeit gradually), exports will follow suit.”
Assuming the thorny issue of deficit/debt reduction is resolved, he thinks U.S. businesses are likely to spend and hire more in 2013. “This means growth will average around 2%,” he says.
According to Behravesh, inflation will remain tame. “Soft growth, large output gaps, and high unemployment rates in the past couple of years have significantly reduced price pressures, with the rate of inflation down between 2011 and 2012 in all but one region,” he explains. “This benign state of affairs is likely to continue through 2013.”
That’s a pretty good outlook if you ask me.